Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 162000 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 300 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 OTHER THAN POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. 88D MOSAIC SHOWING PCPN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTENSIFYING OVER WRN KS WHERE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES DESTABILIZE...MUCAPES 1000J/KG. THE WRN KS REGION WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING WITHIN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/NOSE OF LLVL JET. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF PCPN EXPANDING INTO THE WRN CWA...AND NOW THE LATEST HRRR...AND FOR THE MOST PART HIRES ARW/NMM...HOLD OFF REACHING THE WRN CWA UNTIL ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PCPN SHIELD SHOULD SPREAD INTO MUCH OF OUR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AS WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADS OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PW`S ON THE ORDER OF 1.0-1.5". STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW STILL TO OUR WEST ON SATURDAY...BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES WELL INTO SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE REGION AT SOME POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED...STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD BE A BLUSTERY DAY AS PCPN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSE OFF INTO A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW...DRAGGING COOLER AIR DOWN WITH IT. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 RADAR MOSAIC THIS AFTN SHOWING SCT SHRA LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN NEB WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE PCPN ACTIVITY. TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HINT THE TAF SITES WILL SEE BRIEF PD OF -SHRA/MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN SCT TSRA ACTIVITY BEGINS EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER ERN NEB. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...DEE

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