Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 012251 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 551 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPPED INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND HAS SINCE STALLED NEAR A WAYNE TO NELIGH LINE. NO REAL PUSH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...SO NOT EXPECTING IT TO DRIFT MUCH FROM WHERE IT IS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TONIGHT. PERSISTENT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY TODAY...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHER SHOWERS BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST. THEN LATER TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING RAP/ARW/NMM ALONG WITH NAM AND GFS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 30KT POINTING INITIALLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MIDNIGHT THEN TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INDICATED ON NOSE OF THAT JET WHERE THETA-E ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND PERHAPS A COUNTY OR TWO TO THE NORTH...COULD SEE MORE SHOWERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK...BUT ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY SPARK A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 305K SFC SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A WEAK 300MB JET SEGMENT WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION FOR ASCENT. WILL BOOST THE POPS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE PCPN SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40KT 850MB JET. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA SUNDAY MORNING BUT A MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND STALL ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN KS AND WILL POSSIBLY DRIFT NORTH ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW CONTINUED TSTM CHANCES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE THE OPEN GULF WILL BRING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TO THE REGION. ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THIS UPPER TROUGH KICKS THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MIX OF SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLO050. AS MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SAT THERE IS SOME CHC OF ISO/SCT SHRA...ESPECIALLY AT KLNK BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DERGAN LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...

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