Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 250432 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1132 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE 08Z...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING ON SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. ONE WAS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OTHER WAS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND TRACK INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAD MOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MIXED LAYER CAPE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AS OF 19Z WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS LOCALLY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MOSTLY 7.5 TO 8.5 DEGREES C PER KM. EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. RECENT HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY HAIL AND THAT MAINLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS STORMS LIFT/MOVE NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS. THERE IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF HAIL WITH STORMS THAT MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT ALL AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ON SATURDAY...PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING...SO KEPT MOST HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND OPEN UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY...BUT AT THIS TIME PCPN CHANCES SEEMED TO BE 14 PERCENT OR LESS FOR ANY GIVEN PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN WARM TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OCCASSIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...KERN

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