Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 011120 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 620 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 PCPN CHANCES/PCPN COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT AND THEN WASH OUT THIS EVENING. LATEST SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME SCATTERED AND MAINLY LIGHT PCPN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. 06Z RAP SEEMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE PATTERN. LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA MAY ONLY REACH NEAR 70. MILLER SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN SHIFTS TO THE SRN CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WHERE 310K UPGLIDE AND LOW COND PRES DEF WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. NEXT ROUND OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MID WEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY. MODELS HOLD OFF DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTN WHEN ENVIRONMENT BECOMES ADEQUATELY UNSTABLE...THEN INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING BNDRY LYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CONCENTRATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT FORCING...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF AND INCH OR SO. DEE .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 SFC BNDRY AT THIS POINT PROGGED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY MORNING THRU TUESDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MOIST BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED OVER THE CWA WOULD SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. TUESDAY AFTN THRU THURSDAY NIGHT PCPN ACCUMULATIONS BEING DRIVEN BY EXTENDED PERIOD OF 305K UPGLIDE/PRESIDENT LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...METEOGRAMS STILL SHOWING MODERATE COOL NEXT WEEK IN LIGHT OF SFC BNDRY MOVING IN. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 SOME CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET AND VSBYS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHRA. DID NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THE 12Z TAFS BECAUSE ANYTHING SHOULD BE ISOLATED. WE CAN AMEND THE TAFS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER/DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...MILLER

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