Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 301742 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1242 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015 PCPN CHANCES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THIS WEEKEND REVOLVING AROUND PAC NW TROF MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT. HIRES ARW/NMM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PCPN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TOWARD 06Z TONIGHT ALONG THE SFC BNDRY FROM NRN MN TO THE NEB PANHANDLE...THEN REACHING THE NRN CWA SOMETIME AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING THEN EXPAND OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THEN ARE MORE OR LESS BEING DRIVEN BY PROLONGED PD 300K UPGLIDE. HOWEVER..SEEMS THAT THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECM SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT WITH REGARDS TO QPF AMOUNTS...RELATIVE TO 29/00Z RUN....AND NOW GENERALLY SHOWING TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND .25". WITH MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...ANY TSTMS THAT MIGHT OCCUR SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015 GFS/ECM/CMC CONTINUE TO DEPICT PCPN CHANCES PRETTY MUCH THRU THE EXTENDED FCST PD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY MORNING THRU TUESDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MOIST BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED OVER THE CWA WOULD SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING HALF AN INCH. TUESDAY AFTN THRU THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ON TAP WITH PCPN ACTIVITY PRETTY MUCH BEING DRIVEN BY EXTENDED PD OF 305K UPGLIDE/PERSISTENT LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION. TOO FAR OUT THOUGH TO TRY AND DETERMINE AMOUNTS. AS FOR TEMPS...METEOGRAMS DEPICTING MODEST COOL DOWN MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT OF ANTICIPATED SFC BNDRY MOVING IN. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 03Z AS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z BUT LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED TO VSBYS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...FOBERT

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