Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 150451 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1151 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 AFTER ONE MORE FAIR WEATHER DAY TODAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS TO THE REGION. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US...WITH UP TO 140M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB IN OR/CA. WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED IN THE OK/TX RED RIVER VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD REGION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE 850MB LOW CENTERED IN AB THROUGH ID/NV/SOUTHERN CA...WITH DISTINCT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AS TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAD RISEN INTO THE MID-TEENS...WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND WERE AROUND -5C. 850MB RIDGE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IA THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL MT...WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH ACROSS WI/IL/IA...AND RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BETWEEN. WITH MIXING INTO DRY MID- LEVELS...SURFACE RH WAS DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEB. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ARRIVAL OF AT LEAST CLOUDS IF NOT A FEW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND EJECT NORTHWARD THROUGH KS/NEB TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME MOISTENING OF THE PROFILE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN VERY DRY PROFILE TO START...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL GO INTO CLOUD PRODUCTION...AND THINK MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. HAVE DECREASED POPS AND LIMITED EXTENT TO EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION ONLY SHOWERS AND NO THUNDER. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. OF NOTE...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER AND HAVE DISREGARDED FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. DUE TO SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL REDUCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE CWA ON THURSDAY MORNING AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION. THE UPPER LOW OPENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES TO OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 A BKN MID LEVEL DECK AROUND FL040-060 WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES EARLY WED MRNG AND CONT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS DECK MAY NEAR MVFR RANGE BY WED EVNG AT KOFK/KLNK BUT WILL LEAVE IN THE VFR RANGE FOR NOW. WILL LEAVE THE TAF LOCATIONS DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION ARE TO LOW TO INCLUDE CURRENTLY. SE WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE ON WED WITH GUSTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTN. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM...KERN AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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