Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 141743 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1243 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS... WHICH THEN ALSO AFFECT FIRE WEATHER...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. DEWPOINTS LOCALLY WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE OVER THE AREA. THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL INCREASE. THICKNESS VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY DO NOT CHANGE MUCH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TODAY MOST LOCATIONS. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT...BUT 00Z GFS WAS WARMER. WILL GO A BIT WARMER IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE MIXING MAY BE A BIT DEEPER...BUT STAY CLOSER TO A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR HIGHS ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT...THE WEST COAST H5 TROF WILL HAVE MOVED INTO IDAHO...WITH THE WEAK H5 TROF OVER TEXAS LIFTING NORTH INTO KANSAS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP INITIALIZED WELL AT 06Z THIS MORNING. AT 00Z...THE OAX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH 0.24 PWAT. THIS SHORTWAVE OVER KANSAS FURTHER LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW...PWAT INCREASES TO 0.75 OF AN INCH. THE AREA OF LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIFTS NORTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE WAVE AND IS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH 06Z...WITH SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 06-12Z. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST...WEDNESDAY...THAT AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVES WITH IT. KEPT THE WESTERN COUNTIES MAINLY DRY...WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE H5 LOW TRACKS TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND THERE IS LARGE SCALE LIFT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THERE ARE SOME COVERAGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...SO HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 60S. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE PLAINS. STILL SOME LOCATION AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT WILL MAIN ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF THE TIME. && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...THOUGH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM ABOVE 12KFT TO AROUND 3500-5000FT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10KT AND SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 01Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND OR BELOW 10KT AT KOMA AND KLNK.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012- 016>018-030-031. IA...NONE.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...MAYES

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