Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 150908 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 408 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015 THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY. WEAK MID TROPOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWED SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MISSOURI BUT ALSO INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA. MODELS SHOW INCREASING 850-500 MB MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND SUGGEST SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. BEST MOISTURE SHOULD LIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PCPN AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. DID NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW OR ZERO.CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER AND MIXING WILL NOT BE AS DEEP. THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST PRODUCED A RARE TORNADO FOR OREGON AND HIGH WINDS (50-92MPH)/DUST STORM FOR SALT LAKE CITY AREA TUESDAY...WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER TO WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM GETS CUT-OFF FROM THE REST OF THE FLOW AND SITS OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. THE 110KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON AT 00Z WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND THE TROF IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST A CLOSED LOW THAT BROADENS OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE 120M HT FALLS INCREASE OVER COLORADO...BUT ARE NOT MAINTAINED AS THE FALLS SHIFT BACK TOWARD ARIZONA. DURING THE PROCESS...THERE IS SOME WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...HOWEVER AN AXIS OF STRONGER H85 WINDS DEVELOPS TONIGHT FROM TEXAS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA...AND VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THERE IS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY IN HOW THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION/OMEGA/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE 4KM WRF IS MAINLY DRY THRU THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NAM/GFS/EC SHOW AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS BY 12Z. WILL MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED IN THE FAR WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THUNDER DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THURSDAY...THESE INGREDIENTS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WITH COVERAGE INCREASING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER A LARGER AREA...THUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES TO THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE SPC HAS EXTENDED THE MARGINAL AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS TOWARD THE OAX CWA FOR DAY2. LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF OVER COLORADO/NEW MEXICO. THE TROF OPENS UP SATURDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FINALLY EXITING THE AREA. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 A BKN MID LEVEL DECK AROUND FL040-060 WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES EARLY WED MRNG AND CONT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS DECK MAY NEAR MVFR RANGE BY WED EVNG AT KOFK/KLNK BUT WILL LEAVE IN THE VFR RANGE FOR NOW. WILL LEAVE THE TAF LOCATIONS DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION ARE TO LOW TO INCLUDE CURRENTLY. SE WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE ON WED WITH GUSTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTN. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

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