Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 202335 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 635 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. RED FLAG WARNING WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT... WITH SOME LOSS OF COVERAGE AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S...AND IN SOME CASES BELOW FREEZING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES... WE ARE PROBABLY STILL JUST SLIGHTLY TOO EARLY FOR ANY FREEZE HEADLINES SINCE THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IS IN LATE APRIL TO EARLY MAY. .SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015 WITH MODELS SHOWING LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALTERING TO TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE ANCHORED OFF THE BRITISH COLOMBIAN COASTLINE AND THE OTHER SITUATED OVER ERN CANADA...NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS WILL ENSURE CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S... AND AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AS FOR TUESDAY THOUGH...DECENT MIXING WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 60. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT TERM PDS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015 MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SAT...THEN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING PCPN ACTIVITY EXPANDING EWD OUT OF WRN KS/WRN NEB LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THEN ENVELOPING THE CWA THRU FRIDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO POTENT VORT MAX MOVING THRU KS ALONG WITH AXIS OF DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING. IN ADDITION...APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AS WELL THAT GENEROUS PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SRN CWA. GIVEN MODEL SIMILARITY...HAVE DECIDED TO NUDGE POPS JUST A BIT DURING THIS TIME. NEXT CHANCE COMES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROF MOVING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. SMALL POPS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE IN THE GOING FCST SO NO CHANGES NEEDED. AS FOR TEMPS...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHILLY CONDITIONS THRU THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S...THEN A MODEST WARM UP NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUD LAYER DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ALSO DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING THROUGH 02Z. SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012- 016>018-031>033. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...FOBERT

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