Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 052019 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP WHERE AGITATED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO DIURNAL AFTERNOON HEATING BUT THESE STRUGGLE TO HOLD ON. DO EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH ONCE WE LOSE HEATING THIS EVENING. ALOFT...A MID LEVEL NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA WHERE WIDESPREAD RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. KERN SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN HIGH LIKELY POPS AS THE LEAD WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BELIEVE GFS MOS MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...THUS BLENDED HIGHS CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE FOR NOW. AS THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST...THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NE/KS WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE...THEN PUSHING EASTWARD INTO OUR ARE WEDNESDAY EVENING... INITIALLY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN IOWA. STILL APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE...BUT MAY LOSE A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN IOWA. WHATEVER DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE LINGERING ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SECONDARY WAVE CONTINUES TO TO MOVE EAST EAST. WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA...THERE COULD BE A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK IN PRECIP BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD AND STILL WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK HEATING...SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH STRONGEST STORMS PUSHING INTO KS/MO BY MIDNIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AREAS IN BETWEEN COULD REMAIN DRY. FRIDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE MOSTLY DRY AS WELL. MODELS ARE HAVING A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIME AGREEING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT SETTLES. THE NAM/GFS ARE GENERALLY DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT ECMWF/SREF REMAIN OVERLY WET. STARTED TRIMMING POPS DOWNWARD AND GUT FEELING TELLS ME IT MIGHT BE A PRETTY DECENT DAY. DEWALD .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015 THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW IN OUR AREA. THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRYING FLOW FOR US...THUS STARTED TRIMMING POPS DOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH BETTER FOCUS AND DYNAMICS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME. STORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WATCH FOR ELEVATED HAILERS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE IS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ECMWF/GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS AND OVERALL TIMING. THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. USED MODEL BLENDS FOR NOW WITH GENERIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS...WILL ALSO BE INCREASINGLY CONCERNED FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER DUE TO WIDE MODEL SPREADS...IT`S TOO SOON TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC MODES OR DETAILS SINCE A LOT DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF FRONTS AND SURFACE LOW CIRCULATIONS. WEATHER UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY HINGES ON WHAT HAPPENS ON SUNDAY. WENT DRY FOR TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015 COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON. CONGESTED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING CREATING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. LOW VISIBILITIES AT KOFK MAY COME BACK OVERNIGHT AND SO DID HINT AT THIS IN THE TAF. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MORNING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN/DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...KERN

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