Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 312313
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
613 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...FIRST SEVERE WEATHER DAY OF THE SEASON EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE IMPENDING SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. THIS SOUTHERLY
WIND WILL ALSO TAP INTO SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE LOOPING JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUS...WHILE THERE MAY BE A FIRE RISK WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 35 MPH AND VERY WARM TEMPS...INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE THE LOWER THAN 20% RELATIVE HUMIDITY
NEEDED FOR ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE.

THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME...LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I80 THROUGH 00Z. PREFER THE 12Z NAM AND THE 4KM HIGHRES NMM
DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE THE 4KM HIGHRES ARW
MAY BE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT.

BULK WIND SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT
RANGE...WITH HALF OF THAT IN THE LOWEST 1 OR 2 KM. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT INITIAL STORMS MAY BE BORDERLINE SUPERCELLULAR
BEFORE THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A LINER FEATURE THROUGH THE EVENING.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 7-8000` ARE IDEAL FOR LARGE HAIL
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL SPINUPS EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY IF ANY TYPE OF PSEUDO TRIPLE POINT COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. PW VALUES ALSO
INCREASE TO 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ALSO APPROACHING THE 97.5
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN AS INDICATED BY THE NAEFS.
THUS...EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STORMS...WITH SOME AREAS
LIKELY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. COULD ALSO BE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF STORMS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WHERE HEAVIEST RAINS COULD BE
FOCUSED. THUS...HAVE NO DOUBT WE`LL SEE OUR FIRST CONVECTIVE WATCH
OF THE SEASON ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAIL AND
HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH A VERY SMALL WINDOW
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO EARLY ON IN THE EVENT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT IT HAS BEEN QUITE
DRY RECENTLY AS WELL.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS IN MAINLY SOUTHWEST IOWA 7-9 AM.

THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. DEFINITELY COOLER ON
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. COOLER AND BACK TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWER 50S FOR
HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

QUIET AND MILD WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE EARLY IN THE WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY VARIABLE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR SOME CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000
FEET WEDNESDAY BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z. FOR NOW...JUST MENTIONED A
SCATTERED LAYER. TSRA SHOULD BE APPROACHING KOFK BY MID TO LATE
AFTN WEDNESDAY AND FOR BOTH KOMA AND KLNK BY MID EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER


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