Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 170452
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OTHER THAN POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...GOING FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

88D MOSAIC SHOWING PCPN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTENSIFYING OVER
WRN KS WHERE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES DESTABILIZE...MUCAPES 1000J/KG.
THE WRN KS REGION WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITHIN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/NOSE OF LLVL JET.
HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF PCPN
EXPANDING INTO THE WRN CWA...AND NOW THE LATEST HRRR...AND FOR THE
MOST PART HIRES ARW/NMM...HOLD OFF REACHING THE WRN CWA UNTIL ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PCPN SHIELD SHOULD SPREAD INTO
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION AS WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADS OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PW`S ON THE ORDER OF 1.0-1.5".

STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION MOVES OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW STILL TO OUR
WEST ON SATURDAY...BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES WELL
INTO SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE
REGION AT SOME POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED...STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD BE
A BLUSTERY DAY AS PCPN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MUCH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSE OFF INTO A
VERY LARGE UPPER LOW...DRAGGING COOLER AIR DOWN WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SCT SHRA MAY AFFECT THE KLNK TAF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
THIS PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING NWD TOWARD THE KOMA TAF
DUE TO HIGHER STABILITY. SOME OF THIS -RA MAY MOVE INTO KOFK
TOWARD MRNG AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP THERE FOR A COUPLE
HOURS. MOST OF FRI SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE TAFS WITH A SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT WINDS. SCT SHRA MAY AGAIN DVLP FRI EVNG
/ESPECIALLY FOR KOFK-KLNK THRU 06Z/ WITH AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP AT ALL THE TAF SITES JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...


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