Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 191148
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
648 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ENDING RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST...WITH SOMEWHAT COOL CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW CONTINUED ITS SLOW TREK OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH/DEVELOPING
LOW NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS. THIS NORTHERN LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME THE STRONGER OF THE TWO LATER TODAY...HELPING TO
KICK SOUTHERN LOW THROUGH KANSAS TO THE EAST. THIS PROCESS WILL
GRADUALLY DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA TODAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BRINGING AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES.

THAT FRONT WAS ALMOST STALLED IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY
TODAY...AND WAS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATE SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WERE ADVANCING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...AND
SKIRTING SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE EJECTING FROM
UPPER LOW. THIS AREA SHOULD AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST AS
FLOW AROUND SOUTHERN LOW WILL SLOW THAT ADVANCE. AT THE SAME
TIME...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANSION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THIS SCENARIO WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HI-RES ARW/NMM
AND RAP/HRRR ALL AGREE WITH THIS PROGRESSION...AND HAVE BUY-IN
FROM NAM AND GFS.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE RAIN ENDS EARLIER AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ALLOWING MORE EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. EXPECT THE
CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S FORECAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OUR WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHERN
UPPER LOW DRIFTING FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT NEAR-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD REMAIN GUSTY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE RELATIVELY COOL PATTERN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW
PROGRESSION TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING INTO THE PLAINS DRIVING SHOT OF COOLER AIR SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS...MAIN
WEATHER STORY WILL BE REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR ACROSS OUR AREA.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY...AHEAD
OF A LOW/TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE ROCKIES SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT IN
ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION ZONE TO OUR WEST. MODELS ARE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT STILL DRAW
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS TO PRODUCE SHIELD OF RAIN AS FAR
NORTH AS NEBRASKA AND IOWA. SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY AS BEST MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AT KOMA AS RAIN ENCROACHES...WITH RAIN
CONTINUING AT KOMA/KLNK FOR SEVERAL HOURS ONCE IT BEGINS...AND
WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY REACHING KOFK AT LEAST FOR A SHORT TIME. ALL
SITES WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AT 15-20KT GUSTING TO 30-35KT...WITH WINDS DECREASING
AFTER SUNSET TO AROUND 10-12KT. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MAYES



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