Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KOAX 160450
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN PER WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWING FAST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES EXTENDING ACROSS SRN CANADA WITH A LARGE
CLOSED OFF CIRCULATION SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE
SFC...LLVL MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING
OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VLY REGION. RUC13 SHOWING BNDRY LYR MOISTURE
ADV CONTINUING THRU TONIGHT WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND AN
INCH OVER THE CWA. TSTM DEVELOPMENT PROGGED TO OCCUR OVER CNTRL KS/S-
CNTRL NEB LATER THIS EVENING WITHIN AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/NOSE OF LLVL JET...THEN EXPAND NEWD INTO THE WRN CWA
SOMETIME AFT MIDNIGHT AS UPGLIDE INCREASES ALONG 300K SFC. PLAN ON
ONLY MAKING MINOR TWEAKS AT THIS POINT AS GOING FCST IS IN DECENT
SHAPE DEPICTING POPS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PROGRESSION OF WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW
AND ITS IMPACTS AS IT SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED
ON TOP OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEE SIDE SFC LOW REFLECTION IS
FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY BROAD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KS AND INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO
OUR WESTERN CWA...BECOMING LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS
BROAD SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IS FORECAST TO
OPEN UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING CONTINUED BROAD SCALE
VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETTER ORGANIZES ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO BY FRIDAY MORNING. PW`S WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1" THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY...WE WILL
HAVE A FEW INTERMITTENT BREAKS BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT
THIS POINT WITH SUCH SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.

BY MID DAY SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CWA...ALLOWING PCPN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST. THE 12Z ECMWF REALLY
WRAPS THIS SYSTEM UP...WITH NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 65KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO APPROACH
THE 0C MARK OF THE LATEST ECMWF SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THAT
CAREFULLY FOR ANY CHANGE OVER IN PCPN TYPES SUNDAY.

MUCH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY PUT TEMPERATURES INTO THE BELOW NORMAL
CATEGORY. A FEW MINOR WAVES MAY MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW PROVIDING
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. THE
BNK-OVC DECKS SHOULD CONT THROUGH THE DAY ON THU AS WELL BUT
INCREASE TO VFR /FL0040-050/ BY MID TO LATE MRNG. WE WILL CONT TO
LEAVE THE TAFS DRY AT THE MOMENT AS PRECIP TIMING AND CONFIDENCE
IS PRETTY LOW AT THIS POINT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME MRNG SHRA AT KLNK...AND THEN SOME ISO LATE AFTN -SHRA AT ALL
SITES BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST
WINDS...GENERALLY BELOW 12 KT...WILL CONT THROUGH THU EVNG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.