Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 241950
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE 08Z...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING
ON SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS.
ONE WAS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OTHER WAS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE FIRST LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND TRACK INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAD MOVED NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MIXED LAYER CAPE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AS OF 19Z WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS LOCALLY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MOSTLY 7.5 TO 8.5 DEGREES C PER KM.

EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY HAIL AND THAT MAINLY IN OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS STORMS LIFT/MOVE NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME THREAT OF HAIL WITH STORMS THAT MAY AFFECT
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT ALL AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

ON SATURDAY...PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING
THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING...SO KEPT MOST HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
OPEN UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY...BUT AT THIS
TIME PCPN CHANCES SEEMED TO BE 14 PERCENT OR LESS FOR ANY GIVEN
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN WARM
TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONT THROUGH THE AFTN AT KOMA/KLNK AND WILL MOVE
INTO KOFK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT RA CHCS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES. KOFK MAY SEE SOME SHRA MV IN FM THE
NW FM TSRA THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN NEB...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF WITH THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW THERE. KLNK/KOMA WILL
SEE ACTIVITY INCREASE FM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL
INCLUDE SOME THUNDER AT KLNK BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF KOMA ATTM. IFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVS THRU THE SITES...
IMPROVING TO MVFR ON SAT MRNG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



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