Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 240841
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
341 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IS TIMING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. LATEST MSAS WAS DEPICTING STREAK OF
LLVL GULF MOISTURE RUNNING UP ALONG THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTN...SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE SWRN
CONUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING
DPVA INDUCING TO SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
HIRES PROGS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WHEN CAP WEAKEN OVER N-CNTRL NEB/S-CNTRL
SD ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES. BY LATE THIS
AFTN...COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA.
AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER TOP OF MOIST BNDRY
LYR...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE DOWN SOUTH AS WELL.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHEAST KS THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI. EXPECTING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING AND COULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS SUGGEST THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SPC OUTLOOKS CONCURRING. FURTHER NORTH...INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
STRONG BUT WE MAY STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MORESO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A DEFORMATION BAND COULD POTENTIALLY SET UP ALONG I80
AS DEPICTED BY HIRES MODELS.

WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY...PARTS OF THE REGION SHOULD STILL BE WITHIN WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...THEN WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH EASTERLY FLOW WITH
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
DEVELOPING BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS DOES ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO
SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH BOTH MODELS
INDICATE...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY THIN AND GENERALLY MARGINAL...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CIGS NEAR FL050 WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REACHING MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT ALL SITES. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES AS WELL BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z...AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KLNK DURING THAT TIME.
CIGS COULD DROP BELOW FL010 FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING AS
WELL. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REACH KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 00Z AS STORMS IGNITE ALONG A WARM FRONT
DRAPED ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER...BUT THOSE SHOULD
STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES MUCH OF THE 00Z THROUGH 06Z
PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DERGAN


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