Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 182311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN THAT IS LINGERING ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER WILL WANE EARLY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE TO OUR WEST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THIS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...IT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...MOVING TO NEAR I80 BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AHEAD/BEHIND OF
THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT/PCPN ACTIVITY CROSSING INTO THE NRN CWA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN ADVANCING SWD THRU THE DAY WITH TIME-
SECTIONS SHOWING THE WIND SHIFT/SFC BNDRY ENTERING THE OMAHA METRO
SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME...WOULD
EXPECT ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE NW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH THE SREF REVEALING NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA APPROACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFT.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL REST OF THE FCST PD WITH
METEOGRAMS CLEARLY SHOWING DOWNWARD TREND WITH CHILLY TEMPS ON TAP

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

GFS/ECM PROG AN RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS NEXT
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW PRESSURE SLOWING DOWN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

THE ECM...AND GFS FOR THE MOST PART...IS ADVERTISING INCREASING
ASCENT VIA DPVA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS ASSOCIATED
WITH A POTENT VORT MAX UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE WITH BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THAT BOTH THE ECM
AND CMC IS LAYING RATHER HEFTY QPF AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CWA...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BOOST POPS UP A BIT DOWN SOUTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...METEOGRAMS PRETTY MUCH ADVERTISING JUST BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS NEXT WEEK WITH LOW/MID 60S DAYS 4-7.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MESSY AVIATION FORECAST WITH SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN CHANCE FOR SHRA AT KOFK IS AROUND OR A BIT
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT KLNK AND
KOMA AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN SHOWERS MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS SHOULD GUST TO OVER 25 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY AROUND 30 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER


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