Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 220838
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
338 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH EARLIER 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH
A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SPINNING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA
REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. LATEST MSAS SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A COLD
FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.

QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SLIDING
INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 00Z TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MID 50S
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.

WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S AGAIN WITH DRY/COOL AIRMASS STILL
IN PLACE.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A LEE SIDE SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND COULD
SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES ONCE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
IS SCOURED OUT. BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ENTER
INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS KANSAS FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THIS COULD CLIP
OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A FEW SHOWERS ARE  POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.

BY SUNDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD WHILE
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT INTERESTING WITH THE
00Z ECMWF DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE 00Z
GFS KEEPS THE WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
POP INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE AREA. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES MOVING INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...FOBERT


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