Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 292316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SWINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OUR
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DECREASING FLOW
ALOFT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST. THUS A TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS DISSIPATE. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME 30S IN FAVORED RADIATIONAL COOLING AREAS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON HELPING TO DRAW SOME
MOISTURE NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL REACH THE 40S AND PERHAPS LOWER 50S
BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT BEING PUSHED SOUTH IN WAKE OF
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE. NOT A LOT OF FLOW BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SO EXPECT IT WILL ONLY LIMP INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY...THEN
BASICALLY WASH OUT FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER SOME REMNANT
BOUNDARY MAY BE AVAILABLE TO FOCUS SHOWER CHANCES ON SATURDAY.

WILL BEGIN INTRODUCING SHOWERS CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AS FRONT APPROACHES THAT AREA...THEN EXPAND THEM SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ALL OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME. GIVEN SCANT MOISTURE RETURN...INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER
AS WELL. THUS THUNDER CHANCES LOOK TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. AND
THOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...30-40KT OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR SUGGESTS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONG STORM WITH ANY
THAT CAN DEVELOP.

EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCE TO WANE AS AFTERNOON HEATING SUBSIDES
FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OR
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

SATURDAY IS MORE OF A FORECAST PROBLEM. AS STATED ABOVE...DO NOT
EXPECT THERE TO BE MUCH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW MORE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND THUS INCREASE INSTABILITY. ANY REMNANT SURFACE
BOUNDARIES FROM FRIDAY CONVECTION OR LEFT OVER FRONTAL ZONE COULD
FOCUS STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE 75 TO
80 DEGREE RANGE AND SURFACE-BASED CAPES TOP 1000 J/KG. THIS SUGGESTS
AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...SO WILL MAINTAIN THAT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP AT LEAST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY MAY BE THE DAY WITH LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH
A SURFACE FRONT INTO NEBRASKA AND IOWA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL KEEP
FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH...AND THUS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FROM TIME TO TIME. BY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MIGRATE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND PLACE OUR AREA UNDER
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. THOUGH AM NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER ALL OF OUR
CWA EACH PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FINE-TUNING SPECIFIC
AREAS/TIMES GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN WILL HAVE TO BE DONE AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KOFK...KOMA...AND KLNK THROUGH 01/00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...SMITH


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