Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 142041
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
341 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

AFTER ONE MORE FAIR WEATHER DAY TODAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS
TO THE REGION.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US...WITH UP TO
140M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB IN OR/CA.  WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED
IN THE OK/TX RED RIVER VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD REGION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM THE 850MB LOW CENTERED IN AB THROUGH ID/NV/SOUTHERN CA...WITH
DISTINCT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AS TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAD RISEN INTO THE MID-TEENS...WHILE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND WERE AROUND -5C.  850MB RIDGE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IA
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN
CENTRAL MT...WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH ACROSS WI/IL/IA...AND RETURN
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BETWEEN. WITH MIXING INTO DRY MID-
LEVELS...SURFACE RH WAS DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST NEB.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ARRIVAL OF AT LEAST CLOUDS IF NOT
A FEW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.  BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP
INTO A WAVE AND EJECT NORTHWARD THROUGH KS/NEB TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  SOME MOISTENING OF THE PROFILE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN VERY DRY PROFILE TO START...MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE WILL GO INTO CLOUD PRODUCTION...AND THINK MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.  HAVE DECREASED POPS AND LIMITED
EXTENT TO EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  INSTABILITY IS
QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION ONLY SHOWERS AND NO THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM
CDT TUE APR 14 2015

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
DROP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO ONLY MOVE
SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. OF NOTE...THE
12Z OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER AND HAVE
DISREGARDEDFOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. DUE TO SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL REDUCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO
THE CWA ON THURSDAY MORNING AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION.

THE UPPER LOW OPENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED PCPN
CHANCES TO OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH IS SLATED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER BUT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...THOUGH
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM ABOVE 12KFT TO AROUND
3500-5000FT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
KOFK THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10KT AND SHIFT
TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 01Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND
OR BELOW 10KT AT KOMA AND KLNK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030-031.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MAYES


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