Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KOAX 172321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN POINTING TO PCPN REDEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT OVER WRN KS/SWRN NEB NOSE OF LLVL JET/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...WITH FORCING BEING FURTHER ENHANCED VIA STOUT 300K
UPGLIDE. MODELS PROG INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE THEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN REACHES THE WRN CWA EARLY SAT
MORNING THEN LIFTS THRU THE NRN CWA DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...EXPECT ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLD IN NATURE.

ADDITION PCPN LOOKS PROBABLE THEN SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ALONG A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALL IN PART TO
LARGE CUT OFF LOW THATS BEEN SITTING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE LAST
SEVERALS DAYS EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT BEGINS ITS EWD TREK.
AT THIS POINT SUSPECT THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SMALL IN NATURE...THUS
HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS DOWN WITH SLGT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SRN CWA.

ON MONDAY...WITH THE 500MB AXIS EAST OF THE CWA...NW FLOW SETTLES IN
ALOFT WITH CAA BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
AFTN HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

DECENT MIXING ON TUESDAY WILL HELP AFTN HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE LOW
60S...BUT METEOGRAMS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY CHILLY CONDITIONS RETURN
THEREAFTER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR PCPN...GFS/ECM/CMC ALL
FOR THE MOST PART HAVE QPF LATE IN THE PD MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SRN CWA ALONG AXIS OF MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/BNDRY LYR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THUS SEEMS REASONABLE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
SMALL POPS WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

COMPLEX FORECAST BUT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MOSTLY SCATTERED
PCPN POTENTIAL. CONDITIONS ARE VFR CURRENTLY BUT EXPECT SOME
DETERIORATION OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON TSRA NOT OVERLY HIGH SO WILL AMEND AS
NEEDED. SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS BECOME MORE COMMON LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.