Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 042324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

RADAR TREND CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED PCPN LIFTING OUT OF KS AND
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN WITH HRLY SATL PCPN ESTIMATES BTWN 17Z-18Z
SHOWING AN AREA OF HALF AN INCH OR SO JUST WEST OF THE CWA. PCPN
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
STALLED SFC BNDRY WHICH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE NEB/KS BORDER INTO SRN IA.

LATEST RAP13 CONTINUING TO SHOW INGREDIENTS REQUIRED FOR HEFTY
RAINFALL TO OCCUR WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
PARTICULAR...FOCUS IS OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE STRONG MOISTURE
INFLOW//BNDRY LYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE//PW AOA 1.5"//KI 40...WILL
PHASE WITH MAX OMEGA WITHIN AREA OF RELATIVELY DEEP WARM CLOUD LYR
DEPTH. WITH RAP13 MUCAPES HOVERING AROUND 1500J/KG...SEEMS QUITE
POSSIBLE...IF NOT PROBABLE...THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVER THE EXTREME
SRN CWA COULD RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM .50"-.75".

REGARDING SVR POTENTIAL...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE STEEP MID LVL LAPSE
RATES/CONCENTRATION OF LLVL MOISTURE/MAX LYR THETA-E DIFF WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

BY TUESDAY 12Z...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST
JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AND ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI. ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ONGOING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING BUT THE FRONT WILL BE QUICK TO PUSH NORTH TO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER AND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BY
AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME IT WASHES OUT. ALTHOUGH TUESDAY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A RAIN OUT FOR ALL AREAS...WE DO THINK THAT ON AND OFF
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

IN THE MEANTIME...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND EJECT
NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS HEALS DIGGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS WAVE LOOKS STRONGER AND ACTUALLY CLOSES
OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SECONDARY WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS CREATING A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
REGION. IT APPEARS WE COULD HAVE AN ACTIVE MOTHER`S DAY WEEKEND
ACROSS THE REGION.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY MAKE FOR
COOLER DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHOWERS WILL LINGER AT KOFK/KOMA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN
PRECIP MAY END FOR A FEW HOURS...BEFORE A WARM FRONT STARTS
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WHICH COULD
GENERATE SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE BY 05Z-07Z AND BEYOND...LINGERING TILL
ABOUT 16-18Z ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF KLNK
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THAT LOCATION THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...HAVE CLOUDS DETERIORATING TO IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMING VFR TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEWALD



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