Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 241728
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1228 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IS TIMING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. LATEST MSAS WAS DEPICTING STREAK OF
LLVL GULF MOISTURE RUNNING UP ALONG THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTN...SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE SWRN
CONUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING
DPVA INDUCING TO SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
HIRES PROGS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WHEN CAP WEAKEN OVER N-CNTRL NEB/S-CNTRL
SD ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES. BY LATE THIS
AFTN...COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA.
AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER TOP OF MOIST BNDRY
LYR...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE DOWN SOUTH AS WELL.

DEE

SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHEAST KS THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI. EXPECTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT COULD IMPACT
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING AND COULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS
SUGGEST THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SPC OUTLOOKS CONCURRING. FURTHER
NORTH...INSTABILITY IS NOT AS STRONG BUT WE MAY STILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND MORESO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DEFORMATION BAND COULD
POTENTIALLY SET UP ALONG I80 AS DEPICTED BY HIRES MODELS.

WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY...PARTS OF THE REGION SHOULD STILL BE WITHIN WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...THEN WINDING DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH EASTERLY FLOW WITH
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

DEWALD

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
DEVELOPING BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS DOES ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO
SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH BOTH MODELS
INDICATE...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY THIN AND GENERALLY MARGINAL...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONT THROUGH THE AFTN AT KOMA/KLNK AND WILL MOV
INTO KOFK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT RA CHCS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES. KOFK MAY SEE SOME SHRA MV IN FM THE
NW FM TSRA THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN NEB...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF WITH THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW THERE. KLNK/KOMA WILL
SEE ACTIVITY INCREASE FM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL
INCLUDE SOME THUNDER AT KLNK BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF KOMA ATTM. IFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVS THRU THE
SITES...IMPROVING TO MVFR ON SAT MRNG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



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