Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 192350
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
650 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
EARLY THIS EVENING BUT WILL END BY 6 TO 8 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND DIMINISHING BY 8 TO 10 PM. LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

GFS/ECM/CMC IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LARGE SCALE EVOLVING
EARLY NEXT WEEK TO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED JUST NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A CUT OFF CLOSED CIRCULATION SITUATED
OFF THE WEST COAST. FOR THE CNTRL PLAINS...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WITH THE ECMMOS
LENDING SOME SUPPORT TO COOLER MET MAX TEMP VALUES...PREFER TO FLOW
ALONG AND GO WITH AFTN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
ON MON/TUES/WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS PCPN CHANCES HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AND GIVEN SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECM AND
GFS...DETERMINING POPS ARE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IS 500MB FLOW WITH THE ECM ADVERTISING A POTENT VORT MAX CROSSING
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND LAYING HEFTY QPF AMOUNTS OVER
MOST OF THE CWA. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND PUSHES A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE
THRU AND PROGS BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THIS...SEEMS MOST REASONABLE TO JUST SPLIT THE QPF PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES AND PLACE POPS ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE CWA.

OTHERWISE GOING TEMP FCST STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH HIGHS WITH A
MODEST INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO LOW/MID
60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY ABOVE 4000 FEET SHOULD DECREASE THIS
EVENING. THEN LOOK FOR MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE MID TO
LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KNOTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER



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