Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 170832
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIPITATION ENDING SUNDAY.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PIVOTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FROM KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP
TODAY WITH EASTERN AREAS HAVING TO WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR
BETTER POPS AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EAST. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTH WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A BEATRICE-LINCOLN-
COLUMBUS ARC BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER IN THE EAST HALF. THIS
SPLIT SHOULD SEE LOWER TEMPS AROUND 70 CONFINED TO THE WEST WITH MID
70S IN THE EAST WHERE SOME PERIODS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO
COLORADO BY 00Z TONIGHT.  THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 06Z.  THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN SPLITTING SOME OF THE H5 ENERGY TO THE NORTH
IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE CLOSED LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
OKLAHOMA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THESE PERIODS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS WEEKEND.
THE INSTABILITY AXIS DOES LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO AN H85 BOUNDARY IN
THIS REGION THAT LIFTS NORTH AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOME .25-.5 INCH RAINS FELL ALONG WITH PEA
TO DIME- SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS IN
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 200J/KG FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A LITTLE
BETTER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 500J/KG SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD RANGE FROM .5 TO 1 INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO IOWA AND EXTEND IN A LARGE AREA
FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA
AND THE DAKOTA.  THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS DEVELOPS OVER IOWA
INTO MINNESOTA AND EVENTUALLY WI.  THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE GFS/NAM/EC ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A FRONT OVER FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EAST OF THE AREA BY
18Z. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THERE
WILL STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORESO IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT TURN WINDY 15 TO 25KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH 40 TO 50KTS AT
H85. THE MOISTURE DRIES OUT TO .5-.75 PWAT BY 00Z AND 0.25 OF AN
INCH PWAT BY 12Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...SHIFTS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...AND LINGERS THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH LOW...AND THIS ALLOWS A STORM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE EC IS MAINLY DRY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SCT SHRA MAY AFFECT THE KLNK TAF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
THIS PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING NWD TOWARD THE KOMA TAF
DUE TO HIGHER STABILITY. SOME OF THIS -RA MAY MOVE INTO KOFK
TOWARD MRNG AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP THERE FOR A COUPLE
HOURS. MOST OF FRI SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE TAFS WITH A SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT WINDS. SCT SHRA MAY AGAIN DVLP FRI EVNG
/ESPECIALLY FOR KOFK-KLNK THRU 06Z/ WITH AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP AT ALL THE TAF SITES JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD


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