Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 191951
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS EVENING BUT WILL END BY 6 TO 8
PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND DIMINISHING BY 8
TO 10 PM. LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.


.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

GFS/ECM/CMC IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LARGE SCALE EVOLVING
EARLY NEXT WEEK TO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED JUST NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A CUT OFF CLOSED CIRCULATION SITUATED
OFF THE WEST COAST. FOR THE CNTRL PLAINS...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WITH THE ECMMOS
LENDING SOME SUPPORT TO COOLER MET MAX TEMP VALUES...PREFER TO FLOW
ALONG AND GO WITH AFTN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
ON MON/TUES/WED.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS PCPN CHANCES HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AND GIVEN SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECM AND
GFS...DETERMINING POPS ARE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IS 500MB FLOW WITH THE ECM ADVERTISING A POTENT VORT MAX CROSSING
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND LAYING HEFTY QPF AMOUNTS OVER
MOST OF THE CWA. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND PUSHES A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE
THRU AND PROGS BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THIS...SEEMS MOST REASONABLE TO JUST SPLIT THE QPF PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES AND PLACE POPS ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE CWA.

OTHERWISE GOING TEMP FCST STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH HIGHS WITH A
MODEST INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO LOW/MID
60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN WILL END AT KOMA BY 21-21Z WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AT KLNK
LIKELY ENDING BY 18-19Z. MVFR CONDITIONS AT SHOULD BECOME VFR BY
20-22Z ALSO. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 15 TO 22 KNOTS
SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 32 KNOTS...THROUGH ABOUT 01Z
WHEN THE GUSTS END AND SPEEDS DIMINISH TO 12-14 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY 14-16Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD


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