Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 162000
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OTHER THAN POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...GOING FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

88D MOSAIC SHOWING PCPN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTENSIFYING OVER
WRN KS WHERE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES DESTABILIZE...MUCAPES 1000J/KG.
THE WRN KS REGION WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITHIN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/NOSE OF LLVL JET.
HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF PCPN
EXPANDING INTO THE WRN CWA...AND NOW THE LATEST HRRR...AND FOR THE
MOST PART HIRES ARW/NMM...HOLD OFF REACHING THE WRN CWA UNTIL ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PCPN SHIELD SHOULD SPREAD INTO
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION AS WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADS OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PW`S ON THE ORDER OF 1.0-1.5".

STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION MOVES OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW STILL TO OUR
WEST ON SATURDAY...BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES WELL
INTO SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE
REGION AT SOME POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED...STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD BE
A BLUSTERY DAY AS PCPN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MUCH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSE OFF INTO A
VERY LARGE UPPER LOW...DRAGGING COOLER AIR DOWN WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR MOSAIC THIS AFTN SHOWING SCT SHRA LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN
NEB WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE PCPN ACTIVITY.
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HINT THE TAF SITES WILL SEE BRIEF PD
OF -SHRA/MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN SCT TSRA ACTIVITY BEGINS
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
ERN NEB. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE



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