Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 012003
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL SD THROUGH
NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH SOME MINIMAL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HRRR MODEL
HAS INDICATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT INTO
ANTELOPE/KNOX COUNTIES BY 21Z...BUT THIS STILL SEEMS ABOUT 1 HOUR
TOO SOON...DEFINITELY PREFERRING THE 12Z HIRES NMM/ARW AND 00Z
SPC SSEO MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 22-23Z.

MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS STRUGGLED IN OUR AREA...FIRST
BEING IMPEDED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...AND NOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN DESPITE THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH AT TIMES HAVE MET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND STRONG WINDS HAS LED TO VERY HIGH
DANGER AS WELL. LOW 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO
THE 50S THIS EVENING AS TEMPS COOL.

BULK WIND SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT 30-35 KNOTS
INITIALLY... BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN WHICH MAY HELP BOOST
STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE LATER INTO THE
EVENING...THEN INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE A BIT.

FEELING IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
22-23Z...THEN DEVELOP INTO MORE OF A LINER CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STORMS PROBABLY DON`T REACH
LINCOLN UNTIL 8-9 PM AND OMAHA 9-10 PM...AND SOUTHEAST NE AND
SOUTHWEST IA EVEN LATER. SOME AREAS COULD GET AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN PLUS OR MINUS...BUT STILL WELL WITHIN 3 HOURLY FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES OF JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

DRY AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN EVEN COOLER FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

EASTER SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S. AS WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REDEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DETAILS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THRU ABOUT 00Z...THEN
BECOMING MVFR IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THRU 06Z. STORMS MOVE
EAST OF KOMA AND KLNK 06Z-10Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ012-015-017-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...FOBERT


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