Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 150908
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
408 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY.

WEAK MID TROPOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWED
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MISSOURI BUT ALSO INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF IOWA. MODELS SHOW INCREASING 850-500 MB MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND SUGGEST SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. BEST MOISTURE SHOULD LIFT
EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PCPN AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. DID NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT
THIS TIME SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW OR ZERO.CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN SHOULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER AND MIXING WILL NOT BE AS DEEP.

THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST PRODUCED A RARE TORNADO FOR
OREGON AND HIGH WINDS (50-92MPH)/DUST STORM FOR SALT LAKE CITY AREA
TUESDAY...WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER TO WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS THE SYSTEM GETS CUT-OFF FROM THE REST OF THE FLOW AND SITS
OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. THE 110KT UPPER LEVEL JET
OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON AT 00Z WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND THE TROF
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST A CLOSED LOW THAT BROADENS OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE 120M HT FALLS
INCREASE OVER COLORADO...BUT ARE NOT MAINTAINED AS THE FALLS SHIFT
BACK TOWARD ARIZONA. DURING THE PROCESS...THERE IS SOME WEAKENING
OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...HOWEVER AN AXIS OF
STRONGER H85 WINDS DEVELOPS TONIGHT FROM TEXAS THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA...AND VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THERE IS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY IN HOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
AND WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION/OMEGA/UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE 4KM WRF IS MAINLY DRY THRU THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NAM/GFS/EC SHOW AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS BY 12Z. WILL MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED IN THE FAR WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THUNDER
DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THURSDAY...THESE INGREDIENTS CONTINUE
DURING THE DAY WITH COVERAGE INCREASING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER A LARGER AREA...THUS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES TO
THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE SPC HAS EXTENDED THE MARGINAL
AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS TOWARD THE OAX CWA FOR DAY2. LOOK FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CLOSED MID
TROPOSPHERIC TROF OVER COLORADO/NEW MEXICO. THE TROF OPENS UP
SATURDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FINALLY EXITING THE AREA.  HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

A BKN MID LEVEL DECK AROUND FL040-060 WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF
SITES EARLY WED MRNG AND CONT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
DECK MAY NEAR MVFR RANGE BY WED EVNG AT KOFK/KLNK BUT WILL LEAVE
IN THE VFR RANGE FOR NOW. WILL LEAVE THE TAF LOCATIONS DRY FOR NOW
ALTHOUGH THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION
ARE TO LOW TO INCLUDE CURRENTLY. SE WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE ON
WED WITH GUSTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD


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