Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KOAX 011810
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
110 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

PCPN CHANCES/PCPN COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT AND THEN WASH OUT THIS EVENING. LATEST SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED AND MAINLY LIGHT PCPN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. 06Z RAP SEEMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE PATTERN.
LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA MAY ONLY REACH NEAR 70.

MILLER

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT
FRI MAY 1 2015

FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN SHIFTS TO THE SRN CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING WHERE 310K UPGLIDE AND LOW COND PRES DEF WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT.

NEXT ROUND OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU THE
DAKOTAS/UPPER MID WEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY.
MODELS HOLD OFF DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTN WHEN ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
ADEQUATELY UNSTABLE...THEN INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING BNDRY LYR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CONCENTRATION OF
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT FORCING...CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
AND INCH OR SO.

DEE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SFC BNDRY AT THIS POINT PROGGED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY
MORNING THRU TUESDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH MOIST BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED
OVER THE CWA WOULD SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. TUESDAY AFTN THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT PCPN ACCUMULATIONS BEING DRIVEN BY EXTENDED PERIOD OF 305K
UPGLIDE/PRESIDENT LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...METEOGRAMS
STILL SHOWING MODERATE COOL NEXT WEEK IN LIGHT OF SFC BNDRY MOVING
IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ALL BUT THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER DURING THE
EVENING...WITH MORE SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 06Z.
AGAIN MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER/DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.