Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 230830
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AFTER A COOL START...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORHTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN
SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN CA...AND STRONG TROUGH FROM BC INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  850MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH NE/DAKOTAS INTO SASK...AND 850MB LOW WAS NOTED IN EASTERN
NEB...WITH 8C+ DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH.  POCKET OF
SUB-0C 850MB TEMPERATURES EXTNEDED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA/IL AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE RIDGE AT 07Z EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL MO...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN THE
MEANTIME...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
PROVIDING SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES.  BY THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE TO NEB...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDS DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REACH THE CWA IN THE
LATE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE CONTINUED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

DO THINK THAT OVERNIGHT/MORNING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
NEB BY NOON...AND WILL EXIT WESTERN IA SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.  AS UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF THE CO PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN KS BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH WARM
FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AND DRYLINE SOUTHWARD INTO OK.  OF
COURSE...ALL OF THESE FEATURES AND THEIR ASSOOCIATED FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT COULD
SEE A FEW ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SLIP INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA LATER IN THE EVENING.  MORE LIKELY...SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH IN
CENTRAL NEB WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND DIMINISH
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY.  A FEW
LINGERING SHWOERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A COOLER DAY PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES.  AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT LOW IS
PROGGED TO CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND
THUS THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD COME ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB TO MN/IA ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER
AREA...BUT SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME WARMING FINALLY BECOMING EVIDENT BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
US. EVOLUTION OF THAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL SUBJECT TO QUITE
A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z
THURSDAY. THEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE. MID CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THURSDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FL050. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALL
TAF SITES BEFORE 06Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL COME AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN


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