Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 291728
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST UPDATES TODAY HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST WIND GUSTS A BIT HIGHER
MOST AREAS...BUT ALSO TO LOWER THE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
DROPPED A FEW DEGREES WITH THE THICK CLOUD DECK THAT HAS SETTLED
IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S THERE. STILL EXPECT THE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

RADAR ECHOES INCREASED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE PCPN WAS
ALOFT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 14Z OR SO.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING THEN THAT
BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. WE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES AGAIN MONDAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 00Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG SO SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS NO PREFERENCE AS TO WHICH WILL VERIFY BETTER.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH RESULT IN PCPN TIMING ISSUES. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY AND
BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AGAIN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS. ALSO A
DECK OF BKN-OVC CIGS FL030-050 THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS
DRIFT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE VERY GUSTY WINDS
AND THE DRY FUELS. FIRE DANGER IS IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR MOST
OF THE AREA... EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA...AND A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS. WE DO EXPECT THE WINDS
TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE MONITORED FOR ADJUSTMENTS OR PERHAPS ENDING
EARLY.

CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NIETFELD
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...NIETFELD
FIRE WEATHER...NIETFELD



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