Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 140900
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
400 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...
WHICH THEN ALSO AFFECT FIRE WEATHER...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. DEWPOINTS
LOCALLY WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE OVER THE AREA.

THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY...AND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL INCREASE. THICKNESS VALUES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES TODAY DO NOT CHANGE MUCH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO WOULD
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TODAY MOST LOCATIONS. MOST OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT...BUT 00Z GFS WAS WARMER. WILL GO A BIT WARMER IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE MIXING MAY BE A BIT DEEPER...BUT STAY
CLOSER TO A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR HIGHS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...THE WEST COAST H5 TROF WILL HAVE MOVED INTO IDAHO...WITH
THE WEAK H5 TROF OVER TEXAS LIFTING NORTH INTO KANSAS.  THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP INITIALIZED WELL AT 06Z THIS MORNING.
AT 00Z...THE OAX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH 0.24 PWAT. THIS SHORTWAVE
OVER KANSAS FURTHER LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW...PWAT INCREASES
TO 0.75 OF AN INCH. THE AREA OF LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION DRIFTS NORTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE WAVE AND IS OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND PARTS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH
06Z...WITH SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 06-12Z.

AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST...WEDNESDAY...THAT AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVES WITH IT. KEPT THE WESTERN COUNTIES MAINLY DRY...WITH
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES
WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE H5 LOW TRACKS TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND THERE IS LARGE SCALE LIFT
AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA. THERE ARE SOME COVERAGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...SO HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 60S. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS
FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE PLAINS. STILL SOME LOCATION AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT WILL MAIN ON AND OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
MUCH OF THE TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AT 25000. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY...BECOMING SOUTH AND
INCREASING TO 12 TO 22 KNOTS BY 15-18Z. GUST DIMINISH BY 00-01Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM ALBION TO WAYNE WHERE WINDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
SHOULD MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. ALSO THAT AREA HAS NOT HAD AS MUCH
RAIN AS LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEWPOINTS CLOSELY...SINCE RED
FLAG WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER EAST IF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES END UP BEING LOWER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030-031.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD
FIRE WEATHER...MILLER



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