Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 300750
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

PCPN CHANCES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THIS WEEKEND REVOLVING
AROUND PAC NW TROF MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND RELATIVELY
WEAK COLD FRONT. HIRES ARW/NMM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
PCPN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TOWARD 06Z TONIGHT ALONG THE SFC BNDRY
FROM NRN MN TO THE NEB PANHANDLE...THEN REACHING THE NRN CWA
SOMETIME AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING THEN EXPAND OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY THEN ARE MORE OR LESS BEING DRIVEN BY PROLONGED PD 300K
UPGLIDE. HOWEVER..SEEMS THAT THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECM SOLUTIONS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT WITH REGARDS TO QPF AMOUNTS...RELATIVE TO
29/00Z RUN....AND NOW GENERALLY SHOWING TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND .25".
WITH MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...ANY TSTMS
THAT MIGHT OCCUR SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

GFS/ECM/CMC CONTINUE TO DEPICT PCPN CHANCES PRETTY MUCH THRU THE
EXTENDED FCST PD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING IN FROM
THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY
MORNING THRU TUESDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH MOIST BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED
OVER THE CWA WOULD SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING HALF AN INCH.
TUESDAY AFTN THRU THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ON TAP
WITH PCPN ACTIVITY PRETTY MUCH BEING DRIVEN BY EXTENDED PD OF 305K
UPGLIDE/PERSISTENT LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION. TOO FAR OUT THOUGH TO
TRY AND DETERMINE AMOUNTS. AS FOR TEMPS...METEOGRAMS DEPICTING
MODEST COOL DOWN MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT OF ANTICIPATED SFC
BNDRY MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...JB



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