Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 290753
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
253 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015

WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE SITTING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS.
HOWEVER...FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS SHORTWAVE TROF JUST
OFF THE PAC NW COASTLINE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PAC NW
TROF WILL QUICKLY SCOOT ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER...AND BY
THURSDAY NIGHT DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH PCPN
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AXIS OF MOIST BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE.
MODELS PROG PCPN REACHING THE NRN CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN EXPAND SWD OVER THE REST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THE
LATEST GFS IS THE MOST GENEROUS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND .75"
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE NAM/CMC SHOWING TOTALS ANYWHERE FROM
.25"-.50" BY EVENTS END EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE WEAK AT BEST...EXPECT ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THAT MIGHT OCCUR WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015

LATEST GFS/ECM/CMC ARE IN AGREEMENT PCPN ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU
THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE REALIZED... PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SRN CWA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALL THIS IN
PART TO PROLONGED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MOIST BNDRY
LYR CONVERGENCE ALONG A NEARLY STAGNANT SFC BNDRY/INSTABILITY AXIS
PROGGED TO SET UP FROM ERN IA TO WRN KS. REGARDING THE SVR
POTENTIAL...THE GFS IS FOCUSING IN ON LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE ADEQUATE SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR STRONG/SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND ON TAP HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS RETURNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 924 PM
CDT TUE APR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KERN



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