Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 211112
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

QUIETER AND COOLER WEATHER IS ARRIVING INTO THE AREA. SUBJECTIVE
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN
WESTERN ONT/NORTHERN MN...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 110M AHEAD
OF IT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WAS NOTED ACROSS CA...WITH TROUGH JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. UPPER-LEVEL 130-KT JET STREAK WAS
CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST. 850MB LOW WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN
ONT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN US. SURFACE HIGH AT 08Z WAS CENTERED IN
NORTHWEST NEB...WITH SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL FLIRT
WITH 20-25% IN THE WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN CWA PARTICULARLY...AS
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH MIX DOWN DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND
NUDGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. WITH
MARGINAL CONDITIONS ALL AROUND...AS WELL AS CONTINUED GREEN-UP AND
FAIRLY RECENT RAIN...HAVE HELD OFF ON RED FLAG HEADLINES FOR
TODAY...THOUGH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CERTAINLY IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH MEDIAN
LAST-FREEZE DATES MAINLY IN THE APR 21-30 RANGE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT AGRICULTURAL OR ORCHARD IMPACTS
LIKELY...MOST IMPACTS OF THIS FREEZE WOULD BE TO A FEW EARLY-
GROWTH PERENNIALS AND EARLY PLANTINGS IN HOME GARDENS COMPLETED
DURING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HEADLINES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
BRING A CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL TO HIGH
PLAINS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTENING MID-
LEVELS...MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS APPEAR QUITE STABLE...AND THINK EVENT WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN AS CWA REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD LATER SATURDAY THROUGH PART OF
SUNDAY...BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIP...AS WELL AS ITS
EXIT...DECREASES QUITE A BIT INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. MID CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING AN OVERCAST MID CLOUD DECK
BUT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND KOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWEST
SFC WINDS OF 15-20KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS UP NEAR 25KTS. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



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