Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 272309
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
609 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE FORECAST AREA WAS LOCATED UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAIN WEATHER FEATURES WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT POP FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TRAILING END OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
BUT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LOOK TO BE QUITE LIMITED. UPPER RIDGE
THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A CHALLENGE TO MODELS IN THE LATER PERIODS
THIS SPRING AND THIS MAY BE THE CASE AGAIN. WINDS LOOK TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

12Z MODELS INDICATE GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES AND LOW
AMPLITUDE ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
COULD TRIGGER SPOTTY SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT A
BETTER CHANCE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THESE
DIFFERENT FEATURES AT THIS POINT SO SLIGHT POPS DOMINATE UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN


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