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000
FXUS63 KOAX 092042
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
242 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERN THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL PCPN
CHCS DO EXIST...MAINLY THU NGT/FRI MORNING.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LOW FOLLOWING MO RIVER
WITH IT APPROACHING STL AS OF 19Z. STRATOCU REMAINED WIDESPREAD ON
UPSTREAM SIDE OF UPPER LOW EXTENDING INTO SD. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS NOT SOLID AND MODELS INDICATED DRYING TNGT
SO WL CONTINUE TREND OF CLEARING SKIES. FLURRIES COULD LINGER AN
HR OR SO PAST 00Z BUT SHOULD GO PRETTY QUICKLY IF RUC SOUNDINGS
VIA BUFKIT ARE CORRECT. WEAK WARM ADVCTN BEGINS TOMORROW AHEAD OF
A WEAK UPPER WAVE THAT DAMPENS AS IT CROSSES MS RIVER NE OF CWA.
WARM ADVCTN WAS FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONGER WAVE THAT DROPS CLOSER TO THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE RETURN IS QUESTIONABLE LATE WED AND EVEN TO SOME DEGREE
THU...PLUS FCST LIFT WAS NEGLIGIBLE THEN...SO NO INCLUSION OF PCPN
WAS MADE FOR THOSE PERIODS. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHC OF SNOW WITH
WAVE/CLIPPER DROPPING DOWN THU NGT/FRI MORNING ALTHOUGH BETTER
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...IF 12Z MODELS ARE CORRECT...SHOULD BE
NE THRU SE OF THE CWA.

OVERALL MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN SHORT TERM. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO LOWER THEM A BIT NRN ZONES TNGT AND RAISE THEM
MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR SHOULD REACH AT LEAST INTO
THE NRN ZONES TNGT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR READINGS TO DROP FARTHER BELOW ZERO
THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES...SPCLY SINCE 20Z TEMPS WERE IN THE MID
TEENS ON NRN BORDER. WITH EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS AND LGT SOUTH WINDS
THU NGT AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER...TEMPS PROBABLY WON/T DROP OFF MUCH
FROM THURSDAYS HIGHS AND THUS RAISED. PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH BUT
STARTED TRENDS THAT WAY. PREV FCST OF MAX TEMPS ON COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE APPEARED GOOD WITH LTL/NO CHANGES MADE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY..MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE EXT PDS. SOLUTIONS FOR THE MOST PART SHOW NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL SWEEP SWD INTO THE LOWER 48 EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING OUT OF SRN
CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. USING BLEND OF
ECM/GFS...LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY SHOULD BE INTO THE CWA SOMETIME
AROUND NOON. COLDEST HIGH TEMPS DURING THE FCST PD EXPECTED SUNDAY
WITH LOW/MID 20S...THEN LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS POINT...MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WARMING HIGHS  UP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATEST ECM ADVERTISING CONTINUED CAA WHILE THE
GFS ESTABLISHES A WEAK AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ERN CO/WRN KS WITH
INCREASING THKNS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS FOR PCPN...GOING FCST IS
DRY AND WILL OPT FOR SAME. SOLUTIONS FOR THE MOST PART ARE FOCUSING
QPF OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN/IA INVOF MAIN FORCING VIA SEWD MIGRATING
VORT ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

18Z TAFS

MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING VFR AFTER 00Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

CHERMOK/DEE/FOBERT