Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KPAH 170455
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1155 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT...PLUS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING FOR MAINLY
WRN KY...DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A LIGHTNING STRIKE
IS POSSIBLE. FRI AND FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE MOST PART UNDER GENERAL HIGH SFC PRESSURE AND WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT. SOME CLEARING OF SKIES TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NWRN
SECTOR...WILL COMBINE WITH SLACK WINDS TO MAKE CONDITIONS
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SWRN CONUS LOW WHICH
THE MODELS INDICATE WILL SPIN EWD TOWARD THE PAH FORECAST AREA AND
BEGIN TO OPEN UP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE A SFC LOW UNDER THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH
THE MODELS AGREE WILL MOVE NWD UP THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SAT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME TSTM ACTIVITY LIKELY. ATTM...SEVERE
WX IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH SAT NIGHT. EXPECT WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A CLOSED H5 LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE AT LEAST
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA ON
MONDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON IT. AGAIN THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE OUR REGION PRECIPITATION FREE ON MONDAY WHILE THE
CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUES TO HOLD PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS DEVELOPS WARM
AIR ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST..THEN BRINGS
IT ACROSS OUR CWA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DURING
THE SAME TIME FRAME THE ECMWF SHOWS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL WITH NO SIGN OF PRECIPITATION OR A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH A TONED DOWN VERSION OF SUPERBLEND POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL SCT-
BKN040-060 DECK. MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. WINDS WILL
BE CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST. AFTER 13Z, CU WILL DEVELOP WITH SCT-
BKN040 THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO
6 KTS WITH NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RST



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.