Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 010154
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
854 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED SOUTH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE
REGION.  WITH THE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH DAYBREAK...RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD LEAD TO LOWER THAN
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WHERE WINDS BECOME CALM. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...BUT NOTHING MAJOR JUST YET. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY DOWNWARD...ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY ACROSS SE MISSOURI
WITH NEWLY DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR VAN
BUREN TO DEXTER. FOLLOWED A HRRR/RAP13 BLEND FOR TRENDS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...MAINTAINING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE...POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SW KENTUCKY
UNTIL THE CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
AREA.

WEDNESDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A DRY DAY...UNTIL LATE WHEN A SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILL REGION.
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING
COUPLED WITH RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY. THE OVERALL MOISTURE COMES
THROUGH IN LESS THAN A SOLID REGION...SO JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN THE SUBTLE LOOK TO THE WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
WITH DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE OFF
TO OUR N/NW 00Z FRI.

CHANCES RAMP UP THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE NCNTRL
CONUS...AND SURFACE REFLECTION COMING ACROSS THE OZARKS...REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY 18Z FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY REMAIN CONCERNS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
MODEL BLEND WAS USED OVERALL...WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS/EC. TEMPS
WERE A BLEND OF MOS AND BASE MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MODELS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY, MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
PAH FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN TO A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL READINGS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.  WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.  BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 00Z MONDAY, MOVING
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12 TUESDAY.  OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FAIRLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK, AND THIS WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE SLOW APPROACH
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
FOR MONDAY, BUT THE INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 00Z WEDNESDAY TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE,
ATTEMPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER EMANATING FROM
THE THUNDERSTORM ANVILS TO THE SOUTH OF THE KCGI/KPAH TAF SITES,
AS WELL AS UPSTREAM CUMULUS DECK NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...ALL TAF`S SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....RST
AVIATION...SMITH


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