Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 170836
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE FIRST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS OF 08Z. LOW CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH AND SHOULD COVER MOST OF WEST KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI BEFORE DAYBREAK. IN THESE AREAS ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE
PATCHY AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED. FARTHER WEST/NORTHWEST...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT DENSE FOG. WILL PLAN
ON ISSUING AN SPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA SHORTLY...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...IF THE OBSERVATIONS DICTATE. WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION.

00Z NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE REGION TO SUPPORT A
FEW BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS. DECIDED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THAT REGION FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE...THE
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS THAT THE REGION WILL BE DRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

THE CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z NAM...ECMWF AND ARW/NMM WRFS...AND 03Z
SREF...IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOWER TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE AREA TO THE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY. THE 00Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE...BUT WITH FAIRLY LIGHT QPF.
HPC APPARENTLY FAVORS THE GFS AND IT WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

STORM TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ARE GREATER THAN
1.75" OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH 1"-1.5" TO THE
EAST. IT WAS DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY TANGIBLE INSTABILITY...EITHER
SURFACE-BASED OR ELEVATED...OVER THE EAST/NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND THAT PROBABLY EXPLAINS THE
GREATER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST. THIS FORECAST IS MOST LIKELY TOO
WET...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 00Z SUNDAY.

ONE IMPACT OF THE SLOWER ONSET/ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THAT IT MAY VERY WELL BE MIDDAY SUNDAY
BEFORE THE LAST OF IT HAS EXITED THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE REGION.
THIS CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
FOCUS MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DESCENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND ELSEWHERE SUNDAY
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
INDIVIDUAL CELLS EARLY ON...AND THEN DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT ONCE IT BECOMES MORE LINEAR INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE REGION TO MUDDLED UP FROM
MORNING CONVECTION/RAINS...THINK THAT THE SLIGHT TO ENHANCED DAY 3
OUTLOOK FROM SPC MAY BE A BIT RICH AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY WILL BE MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
GENERATES RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY MID WEEK AS MORE VARIANCE APPEARS
IN THE FORECAST MODELS.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEPART SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO BE OVER
MINNESOTA MONDAY MORNING WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT MEANDERS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

SUBMERSED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...THE
IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS...THOUGH THE
CORE OF THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD
STATE REGION GIVEN THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS A RATHER DISORGANIZED BAND OF ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GEM AGREE ON KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS INTRODUCES PRECIPITATION AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIPPLE OF ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THE
LOW. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT
AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CHILLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL SCT-
BKN040-060 DECK. MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. WINDS WILL
BE CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST. AFTER 13Z, CU WILL DEVELOP WITH SCT-
BKN040 THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO
6 KTS WITH NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...RST


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