Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 180711
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
211 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE THAT IS
SEEN VIA SATELLITE JUST UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERING THE FORECAST.
THE RAIN CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS WE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL/ELEVATED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THEN....AFTER ABOUT 00Z MON...WE ARE MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
WITH THE PARENT SYSTEM...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SPIKING AGAIN AS
THE MID LEVEL WAVE IS POISED TO COME THRU THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH IT WILL COME SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL DRIVE
US INTO THE SLGT RISK SVR. THIS AREA OF GOOD POPS WILL END UPON
FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR
CWA MONDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CRANKS OUT LIGHT QPF TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TAPS INTO A POCKET OF MOISTURE BUT THE OTHER LONG
RANGE MODELS KEEP OUR REGION DRY...SO DECIDED TO KEEP DRY AT THIS
TIME.

WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY STILL UP IN THE AIR WITH MODELS NOT ON THE SAME PAGE. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SMATTER LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MORE POCKETS
OF MOISTURE AND WEAK RIPPLES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THE ECMWF BRINGS
IN SMALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
WHILE THE CANADIAN KEEPS US DRY.

UNFORTUNATELY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD MODELS DIVERGE EVEN
MORE. IF THE GFS PANS OUT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HANGS UP A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER OUR AREA WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND GENERATES NO DISCERNIBLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST CANADIAN
MODEL RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 12Z THURSDAY...THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME IT
MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS SOLUTION.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE ANYBODY`S GUESS AT THIS TIME.
THE GFS BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW ATTACHED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
STALLED BOUNDARY DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR CWA KEEPING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AREA WIDE WHILE THE ECMWF BARELY BRINGS SMALL CHANCES INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RATHER THAN YANK POPS AND
YO-YO BACK AND FORTH...JUST WENT WITH A FLAT 20 POP.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY SCATTER TO VFR...BUT WILL RIDE THE
MVFR AVERAGE FOR THE RULE. IFR CIGS LOCATED IN DEPPER MOISTURE
OVER AR/WRN MO MAY ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT...AS RAIN CHANCES APPEAR. MVFR VSBYS RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS...LASTING THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
PLANNING PERIOD. IT SHOULD NOT BE CONTINUOUS PER SE...SO WE`LL
ALTERNATE BETWEEN CONDTIONAL AND VICINITY WORDING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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