RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Paducah, KY
000 FXUS63 KPAH 240922 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 322 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 .DISCUSSION... EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EAST KANSAS INTO EAST OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND DEPARTING QUICKLY TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. SPC DAY 1 HAS GENERAL THUNDER NORTH OF CROWLEYS RIDGE IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. MODELS ARE A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH THEIR MOST FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...SO WILL NOT ADD THUNDER...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS. EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF OUR AREA...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A STRONG H5 VORT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CROSS SECTIONS REVEALING DECENT COLUMNAR MOISTURE AND UPLIFT /REVEALED IN QG/QG-POTENTIAL VORTICITY PROGS/ THAT COULD YIELD SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DESPITE THE LACK OF QPF GENERATED IN THE MODELS. WILL NOT PLAY THIS UP TOO MUCH AND KEEP POPS SLIGHT. THANKSGIVING DAY STILL LOOKS COOL AND BRISK...AS A MID TROP VORTEX DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS STILL FORECAST TO EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHERN FA...FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN AS WELL...BASED ON MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE LOW FREEZING LEVELS SEEN IN THE MODELS SOUNDINGS. NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE NEW 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OUR LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. && .AVIATION... AT KEVV AND KOWB...OVERALL EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS THRU THE TAF PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE OCCASIONAL BREAKS TO LOW VFR. AT KPAH AND KCGI...LOW VFR TO MVFR WILL PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL DIPS TO IFR. VFR TO MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO MORE CONSISTENT VFR AFTER 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING ALL SITES...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR VSBYS. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ CN/RST
