Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 021732
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY
SIDE...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S MOST
LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DECREASING CONFIDENCE AS NEXT
WEEKEND APPROACHES.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NOTHING AS FAR AS A SURFACE SYNOPTICS
PATTERNS GO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CHARGE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
THE MOST PART. IT DOES MEANDER OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALLOWING
FOR THE SURFACE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN A BIT RESULTING IN SOME WINDS
PICKING UP EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE HIGH THEN RETROGRADES BACK INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
REGION. AS FOR THE UPPER LEVELS RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST. THE LATEST MODELS TRY TO
BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
IS WHEN THE CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE SIGNAL IS WEAK WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF SUGGESTING A SHOWER OR STORM. LI`S APPEAR TO GO UNSTABLE
AROUND -2C FRI AND MORE SATURDAY. SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND
15J/KG2. THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW`S OF 1.5
HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING FOR NOW FRIDAY APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THIS RUN ANYHOW.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
WOULD EXPECT TO RUN BETWEEN 5F AND 10F ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND S TO
SSE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...BP2



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