Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
000 FXUS63 KPAH 231816 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1215 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. ALSO UPDATED DISCUSSION SECTION FOR MORNING TRENDS. && .DISCUSSION... TOOK A SECOND SHOT AT METAR AND RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...AS MAIN CLOUD SHIELD SPREADS NORTHWARD OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH SOUTH WINDS GETTING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION...A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING IS LIKELY DESPITE A LACK OF SUNSHINE. THE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL NEED A COUPLE MORE HOURS TO CLEAR THE NORTHEAST...SO ADDED A ISOLATED MENTION IN THE GRIDS UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER CHANGE WAS TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA OVERCAST TONIGHT...TO BE IN LINE WITH AVIATION FORECAST. THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IS OUT. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT FAR FROM 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...06Z GFS OR 00Z ECMWF. && .AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD BE LIFTING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT KCGI AND KPAH. COULD ALSO SEE SOME CEILINGS DROPPING INTO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION THAT AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL BE DRY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT CLEARING OR WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY WORSE FOG CONDITIONS TONIGHT. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ DRS