RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Paducah, KY
000 FXUS63 KPAH 222001 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 200 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009 .DISCUSSION... FOR THE SHORTER TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FOR CLOUDS/WINDS/POP/WEATHER. A MINOR CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE FORT CAMPBELL KENTUCKY AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG THE NORTHERN LIMIT OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPENING LOW OVER MS AT THIS TIME. KEPT THIS SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHCS MONDAY AS THE INITIAL SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAINS WILL COME TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW HINT AT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. OVERALL MOISTURE AND PRECIP SEEMS TO DECREASE AS THE H50 LOW WEAKENS AND OPENS UP DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP LOW END LIKELY POPS GOING ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RVR...BUT WILL HOLD IN THE CHC CATEGORY FURTHER EAST. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT AND CARRY SOME RAIN CHCS INTO THE EVENING OVER ERN AREAS. THIS INITIAL FRONT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN FOR WED...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER AIR DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING. CLOUDS WITHIN THE DEEP CYCLONIC H85 FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S FOR THE HOLIDAY. IN FACT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY OVER CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS OF SE IL AND SW IN. WILL INTRO SMALL CHC FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS PACKAGE. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE DETERMINED BY THERMO PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1500 FT...WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER WAY...SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH QPF WISE. BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER SOME LOCATIONS UP ALONG THE I 64 CORRIDOR SEE THEIR FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON. SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z-09Z MONDAY...AS MIDDLE/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AND SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED/BROKEN DECK BETWEEN 1500-2000 FT AGL OVER KCGI/KPAH BY 13Z MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST ISSUANCE. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ MEFFERT/SMITH
