Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KPAH 260737
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE NATION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN HAS AN
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, THERE IS A COMPLEX
REX BLOCK WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW EVOLVING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES, THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A COL BETWEEN WITH THESE
SYSTEMS, LIMITING THE OVERALL OVERTURNING OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD RETARD THE MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS DEEPER
HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY MOST
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WORK EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY DRY IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ONLY
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL SHOWING A FEW
INCONSISTENCIES.

DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL HAPPEN
SO WILL KEEP DRY.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND
RIPPLES OF H5 ENERGY GENERATING LIGHT QPF APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GFS SHOWS QPF MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF OUR CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN 1000-500MB
MOISTURE...NO FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH...AND NO QPF...SO WILL KEEP
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING BY SUNSET. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.