Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KPAH 231649
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
40S...WITH AN ISOLATED UPPER 30S STARTING TO SHOW UP IN POCKETS OF
SE IL. SOME MID/HIGH DECK CLOUDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT IMPEDING THE TEMP
FALL FOR NOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE HEADLINE EFFECTIVE FOR
FROST POTENTIAL THRU 8 AM. WE`LL LEAVE AS IS...PER COLLAB EFFORTS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ONLY STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT. COULD SEE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
DIP INTO UPPER 30S AGAIN...BUT FROST POTENTIAL IS MORE
QUESTIONABLE CONSIDERING INCOMING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING LIGHT
EASTERLIES WITH WARM FRONT APPROACH...SO WE`LL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A 2ND PERIOD FROST ADVISORY AND ALLOW A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THIS
POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE EVIDENT (OR NOT).

MOISTURE POOLING JUST UPSTREAM LOOKS TO SPREAD OVERTOP THE WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IN EARNEST ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED INCOMING POPS WILL
EXPAND AGGRESSIVELY AND SPIKE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LONG WAVE TROF
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW EJECT FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO
MISSOURI...AND WE START TO WARM SECTOR.

HIGH POP AXIS SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY BUT STRONG STORM POTENTIAL
MAXIMIZES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...SEE SPC
SLGT RISK SVR FOR SAT-SAT NITE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

BELOW NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

BEYOND THIS JUNCTURE IS WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD HINGES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER/SURFACE LOWS BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD. IT ALSO OPENS UP THE
UPPER LOW AND TRACKS IT DIRECTLY TOWARD OUR CWA ON TUESDAY WHILE
GENERATING GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THE SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS DROPS AN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MERGES IT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OVER OUR AREA AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF TAKES THE UPPER/SURFACE
LOWS SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND SHOWS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING OUR REGION DRY THROUGH ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

APPARENTLY THE SUPERBLEND MODEL IS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE POP GRIDS
EACH PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GUSTY AND CLEAR AT KEVV AND KOWB TODAY BECOMING CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. KPAH AND KCGI WILL CARRY A MID DECK TODAY AND LOW
VFR DECK AFTER 12Z FRI. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED JUST AFTER THE
LAST LEG OF CURRENT TAFS WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THUNDER.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.