Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 032320
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
620 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A MOSTLY DRY AND WARM FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BRING QPF RIGHT NEAR
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME. RELATIVELY
DRY AIR OVER THE REGION SHOULD MAKE IT HARD FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
REMNANTS TO GET TANGIBLE PRECIPITATION TO GROUND. MAY END UP WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP UP THERE DEPENDING ON THE PREFERENCE OF OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH.

THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...CONTINUE TO HINT AT CONVECTIVE
DEELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING MODESTLY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...IT STILL LOOKS A BIT DRY TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION. WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...BUT WON`T BE SURPRISED IF NOTHING DEVELOPS.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY MONDAY...AND
WILL BE JUST SHY OF LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED MODEST WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DID KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY DUE TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EVIDENT BY NICE CU FIELD OVER MUCH OF ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES GENERATES BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES TO BELOW AVERAGE NEXT WEEKEND. THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL BE
COUNTERBALANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK IS WHETHER TO INCLUDE
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. IN REALITY...
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS DIFFICULT TO
RULE OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE TOO DRY AND WEAKLY CAPPED TO
SUPPORT MUCH ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS WEAK
MID LEVEL ENERGY STREAMS EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...
RECENT FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THIS CHANCE BACK DAY BY DAY...SO
MY CONFIDENCE IN NEXT WEEKENDS RAIN POTENTIAL IS ABOUT AS LOW AS THE
RAIN CHANCE ITSELF.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE TAFS IS WIND. A GENTLE SRLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z DUE TO MIXING
DOWN OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE MORE LIKELY AT
KEVV/KOWB IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DB



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