Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 040842
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
342 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

REMAIN FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRY SIDE FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE
MID 80S BY MID WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...HENCE
EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
OUT WEST. ONGOING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY/SPRINKLES OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL MO AND ALONG THE I 64 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DECREASING CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXISTING FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE EAST WILL KEEP THE COLUMN CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
FRIDAY AND MOISTURE IS A BIT LACKING AS WELL. HOWEVER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SOONER OR LATER AND THIS WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT TAKING PLACE. WE WILL BE UNSTABLE EACH
DAY WITH PW HIGH ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS BUT THE
CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
THIS WEEKEND MOISTURE APPEARS TO INCREASE WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING
IN PLACE. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ATTM. NEXT WEEK SOUNDING BEGIN TO DRY OUT A BIT. NOW
WITH THAT SAID IT SEEMS DAYS SIX AND SEVEN HAVE BEEN THE PICK DAY
FOR POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAVE
TO PUSH POPS BACK YET AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXPECT SOME
OF THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED TO BE BETWEEN 5F AND 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE TAFS IS WIND. A GENTLE SRLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z DUE TO MIXING
DOWN OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DB



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